How Often Does a Crash at Odds Less Than 1.5 Occur?

Crash at Odds Less Than 1.5 Occur

In the game https://aviators.game/, each round starts with odds of 1.00 and increases until the moment of the ‘crash’ (collapse). Players need to manage to fix their winnings before the plane ‘falls’.

One of the important indicators for players is how often a crash occurs at low odds, for example, below 1.5. Knowing this probability helps to plan a strategy, understand the risk of quick losses, and choose the right moment for an auto cashout.

Statistical Data on Crashes Below 1.5

An analysis of multiple rounds in the Aviator game shows the distribution of odds at which crashes occur. 

According to independent research, the average values of the distribution may vary depending on the implementation, but approximate figures from public reviews give a picture of the order of probabilities:

  • Crashes in the range 1.00×–1.10× occur in approximately 2% of cases;
  • Crashes in the range 1.10×–1.50× occur in approximately 63% of cases;
  • Crashes in the 1.50×–2.00× range occur about 20% of the time;
  • Crashes in higher ranges (2.00×–5.00× and above) account for the remaining percentage.

From this data, it is clear that a total crash below 1.5× occurs in approximately 65% of Aviator game rounds. This means that if you set the auto cashout to 1.5×, you will theoretically win approximately two-thirds of the rounds (although deviations are possible in practice).

Another source estimating the distribution of crashes indicates that the chance of a crash at odds of less than 1.20 is about 11.6%, and approximately 25% of rounds reach odds higher than 2.0×. These figures look slightly different, but they refer to a different calculation method or sample of rounds. Nevertheless, the general understanding remains: the frequency of crashes at very low values (e.g. below 1.2×) reaches around 10–15%, and if the range is expanded to 1.5×, this probability increases significantly — up to 60–70%.

It is important to remember that each session in the Aviator game is independent of the other and the results may differ from the average distribution. However, with large samples, the statistics smooth out and figures around 65% for crashes below 1.5× are a good benchmark.

Why is This Important for Players in the Aviator Game?

Understanding the frequency of crashes below 1.5× helps players assess their risks. If you set the exit level at 1.5×, theoretically, you will win in most cases, but at the same time, in almost 65% of rounds, the plane crashes before reaching this mark. 

Simply put, if you bet 1 unit and set the auto cashout at 1.5×, then if you win, you get 1.5 units back (i.e. a net profit of 0.5), and if you lose, you lose your entire bet. At the same time, a ‘crash’ before 1.5× occurs in approximately 65% of rounds, which means that you win about 35% of the time. If you calculate for 100 rounds, on average you win 35 times by 0.5 (that's +17.5), but lose 65 times by 1 (that's -65), and end up with -47.5. Divided by 100 rounds, this means a loss of approximately 0.48 bets on average per round. 

This clearly shows the negative mathematical expectation in the Aviator game: even frequent small wins do not compensate for more frequent losses of the entire bet.

If you choose a more conservative betting style, such as auto cashout at 1.2×, the probability of triggering is higher (about 85–90%), but the winnings per round are lower (+0.2 units), and again the mathematical expectation remains negative, but the balance between the frequency of wins and the size of the winnings changes.

Players who prefer long Aviator game sessions with small but more stable winnings often set the auto cashout to 1.2×–1.3×. According to analyses, about 80–90% of rounds reach at least 1.3×. However, there is a risk that from time to time the ‘game’ will crash immediately at 1.01× or 1.03×, when it is impossible to react to the auto cashout (due to technical limitations or delays).

Those who are willing to take risks for big wins postpone the cashout to higher levels, but at the same time suffer more losses: crashes up to 1.5× occur in about 65% of rounds, up to 2× — about 85%. Accordingly, the strategy depends on the individual risk profile and bankroll.

Practical Conclusions about Winnings in the Aviator Game

For those interested in strategies, it is important to understand that choosing an auto cashout level is a balance between the frequency of wins and the size of the win.

If you want to minimise volatility, it is wise to choose an auto cashout in the range of 1.2×–1.3×, where the probability of passing a round is higher (about 80–90%). If you are prepared to accept more frequent losses for the sake of potentially higher profits, an auto cashout in the 1.5× range will give you a win of 0.5× your bet, but will only trigger in about 35–40% of rounds (i.e., a crash below 1.5× occurs in ~65% of cases).

It is recommended to test Aviator strategies in demo mode or with minimum bets to assess how often auto cashout works in your experience and how this compares to theory. It is important to remember that the mathematical expectation is negative, and no strategy can change the casino's built-in advantage. Nevertheless, a conscious choice of exit point helps to manage the psycho-emotional perception of wins and losses: frequent small wins feel different than rare big ones.

Conclusions

Analysis shows that crashes in the Aviator game with odds less than 1.5× occur in approximately 60–70% of rounds in large samples. This data helps players assess risk and choose an auto cashout level according to their personal preferences. Regardless of the exit point chosen, it is important to remember the negative mathematical expectation and approach the game with a cool head.